Possible scenario
Sporadic Strikes Continue
31% Chance
Saudi Arabia receives some assistance but cannot close all gaps, allowing periodic Houthi drone and missile attacks to continue. The most probable continuation is damage to secondary facilities rather than a sustained shutdown of core Saudi production.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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