Possible scenario
Managed NATO handover
42% Chance
The end of British and French armoured rotations is treated as a planned force-structure change rather than a net withdrawal. US, Estonian, and other NATO assets cover the gap while London and Paris shift toward air, missile-defence, and rapid-reinforcement roles.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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