Orderly Yield Repricing

The most likely outcome is that investors treat the 30-year high as a continuation of Japan's normalization rather than a disorderly break. The BOJ has already raised rates to 1.25%, and the market may settle into a higher-yield equilibrium if auctions remain functional and domestic buyers step in.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.