Possible scenario
BOJ Calms Market
20% Chance
The BOJ may choose to reassure investors that policy normalization does not require disorderly bond-market conditions. Even without reversing its tightening stance, targeted communication or flexible purchase operations could cap near-term volatility.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.8%
- Technology +0.7%
- Finance +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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