Possible scenario
Credit Workout
30% Chance
The force majeure notice could push lenders into a formal amendment process, especially with loans already below 90 cents. The base case inside this scenario is an amend-and-extend deal rather than liquidation, but pricing remains weak.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.4%
- Finance -0.8%
- Utilities -0.8%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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