Possible scenario
U.S. Pressure Rises
25% Chance
Washington responds to Putin's refusal by increasing economic and diplomatic pressure rather than immediately abandoning diplomacy. Measures could include expanded sanctions, tougher enforcement on Russian energy flows, or new military funding for Ukraine.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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