Possible scenario
Frozen Negotiating Track
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Moscow rejects the current Trump-led framework while avoiding a dramatic new escalation. Russia continues to signal openness to talks only on terms that include territorial concessions and limits on Ukraine's security alignment.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
- Technology -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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