Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
40% Chance
Russia uses Lavrov's statement to frame the killing as an illegal use of force but avoids direct military involvement. Moscow, Beijing, Oman and Qatar push for emergency diplomacy while Israel and the US signal they do not intend a broader campaign inside Iran.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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