Possible scenario
Calibrated Iranian Retaliation
25% Chance
Iran retaliates to preserve deterrence but tries to avoid a full US war. The most likely actions are missile salvos, proxy attacks, cyber operations, and threats to Gulf shipping rather than an immediate attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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