Possible scenario
Disruption Absorbs Loan
25% Chance
A less benign but plausible outcome is that the loan is interpreted as evidence the government sees a larger supply problem developing around the Strait of Hormuz. The SPR action then cushions but does not reverse the upward move in crude prices.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.3%
- Consumer Services -1.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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