Possible scenario
Late Ad Surge
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that record spending keeps climbing through the final weeks as close Senate, House and gubernatorial races remain competitive. Local television, connected TV and major digital platforms capture most of the incremental money, with limited broader market impact.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.6%
- Business Services +0.4%
- Telecommunications +0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- NXST+1.2%
- SBGI+1.0%
- +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.