Possible scenario
Credible Fiscal Path
45% Chance
France uses the ECB signal as political cover to keep a three-year consolidation path alive. The government modifies the 2027 package enough to win procedural passage while preserving the headline objective of returning the deficit near 3% of GDP.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.8%
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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