Possible scenario
Bypass Backfires
15% Chance
The government invokes a parliamentary bypass to force through the fiscal package, triggering a no-confidence motion. This raises the risk of political instability on top of sovereign-credit concerns, producing a sharper but still non-crisis market reaction.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.