Possible scenario
Budget Gridlock Persists
30% Chance
Parliamentary resistance continues after the finance committee rejection, leaving the government unable to lock in the full 2027 package quickly. Markets do not price a fiscal crisis, but risk premia remain elevated because the path to 3% depends on uncertain votes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
- Finance -0.2%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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