Possible scenario
Prolonged Shipping Disruption
25% Chance
The conflict stays below the threshold of direct US-Iran war but commercial traffic remains severely impaired. Mines, insurance exclusions, crew refusals, and port congestion keep effective Gulf export capacity below normal levels.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.