Possible scenario
Limited Military Escalation
35% Chance
Washington and allied navies move from escorting tankers to active mine-clearing, interdiction, and limited strikes on IRGC launch sites. Iran continues calibrated attacks but avoids a declared war with the United States.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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