Possible scenario
Food Inflation Shock
35% Chance
The strongest El Niño since 1950 most directly threatens agriculture through drought in Southeast Asia, heat in South Asia, and erratic rainfall in Latin America. Food-price volatility becomes the main transmission channel into markets, with staples producers and commodity traders outperforming while retailers and packaged-food companies face margin pressure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.8%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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