Possible scenario
Energy Utilities Strain
25% Chance
El Niño-linked drought reduces hydropower output in several emerging markets, increasing reliance on gas, diesel, and coal-fired generation. The outcome is modestly supportive for oil and gas producers but negative for power utilities and energy-intensive industrial users.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials -0.6%
- Utilities -0.5%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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