Possible scenario
Temporary Trade Miss
20% Chance
The market may conclude the August deficit scare is overstated, with timing effects in coal, LNG, and rural exports distorting the monthly print. Under this outcome, the trade balance remains positive enough to avoid a major reassessment of Australian growth.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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