Possible scenario
China Demand Drag
45% Chance
The trade miss is most likely read as another sign that weak Chinese property activity is weighing on Australian bulk commodity exports. With iron ore prices already pressuring Rio Tinto earnings and China’s housing slump deepening, markets focus on the terms-of-trade hit rather than one month of noisy data.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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