Possible scenario
Talarico Narrow Win
38% Chance
James Talarico converts his polling and fundraising advantage into a very close general-election win over Ken Paxton. The outcome is plausible because the odds market now prices him as the favorite, but Texas remains structurally difficult for Democrats statewide.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Finance -0.2%
- Healthcare +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.