Possible scenario
Talarico Clear Victory
28% Chance
Talarico wins by a margin large enough to avoid serious recount risk. His strength in Fort Bend, suburban Houston, Austin-area voters, and younger turnout turns the race from toss-up into a clear Democratic pickup.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Finance -0.2%
- Healthcare +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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