Possible scenario
Paxton Comeback
27% Chance
Ken Paxton recovers late as Republican turnout, presidential approval dynamics, or attacks on Talarico's record narrow the gap. This remains a realistic outcome because Texas's Republican lean can still overcome a Democratic polling lead.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Finance +0.4%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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