Possible scenario
PLA Military Signaling
22% Chance
China escalates from verbal warnings to coercive military signaling near Taiwan, similar to prior encirclement drills. The base case remains intimidation rather than invasion, but the immediate market reaction is more pronounced because of Taiwan's central role in advanced semiconductors.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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