Possible scenario
Managed Summit De-Escalation
38% Chance
Washington and Beijing keep the Taiwan dispute contained through private language on red lines and crisis communication. Trump does not publicly endorse Beijing's position on Taiwan independence, while Xi avoids immediate retaliation and frames the talks as a warning.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.