Possible scenario
Rationing Broadens Gradually
45% Chance
The most likely path is a controlled but worsening shortage in western and central Russia as refinery repairs, rail logistics, and military fuel priorities strain retail supply. Moscow remains supplied, but purchase caps become more common and politically visible.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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