Possible scenario
Kremlin Stabilizes Supply
25% Chance
The Kremlin intervenes quickly to avoid a politically damaging shortage in the capital. Export restrictions, redirected refinery output, and emergency rail allocations ease the most visible retail shortages, though at the cost of lower margins for Russian producers.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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