Possible scenario
Stable Gulf rebound
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the September export rebound proves durable over the next several days. U.S. pressure keeps Iranian exports constrained, while Saudi, UAE, Kuwaiti, Iraqi and Omani logistics keep Hormuz and bypass flows moving.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.