Possible scenario
Managed U.S.-Iran standoff
25% Chance
The United States and Iran remain in a tense but contained posture. Washington continues restricting Iranian exports while allowing allied Gulf barrels to transit, avoiding a full Hormuz confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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