Possible scenario
Diplomatic Retaliation
25% Chance
London concludes the suspected plot had some connection to Iranian state-linked networks and responds with diplomatic or sanctions measures. This remains below a military confrontation but raises geopolitical risk around UK-Iran relations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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