Possible scenario
Contained Terror Case
40% Chance
The most likely path is a conventional counterterrorism prosecution handled by UK police, MI5 and the Crown Prosecution Service. The Iran link remains part of the evidentiary record, but the government avoids major retaliatory action while the case proceeds.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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