Possible scenario
Limited Legal Relief
25% Chance
Defense lawyers pursue a narrow procedural route that reduces or suspends the custodial portion without overturning the political message of the case. This would fit Iran’s pattern of selective leniency when international visibility rises but domestic control remains the priority.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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