Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause
15% Chance
The submarine kill convinces Tehran that further naval confrontation is too costly, while Washington wants to prevent a shipping shock. Oman, Qatar, and Switzerland help open a narrow deconfliction channel focused on Hormuz traffic and prisoner issues rather than a broader settlement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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