Possible scenario
Containment Holds
45% Chance
The submarine kill reinforces U.S. undersea dominance and deters Iran from another direct naval clash. Washington keeps pressure on the IRGC Navy and regular Iranian Navy while avoiding new strikes on mainland targets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Energy -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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