Possible scenario
Regional Spillover
20% Chance
Cases cross into neighboring states through porous borders and refugee movements, especially Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi or South Sudan. Regional health systems respond quickly, but the probability of border controls, travel screening and trade disruption rises.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.9%
- Consumer Services -0.8%
- Healthcare +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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