Possible scenario
Protracted Local Outbreak
35% Chance
The outbreak remains concentrated in eastern Congo but continues to grow because conflict, displacement and distrust interrupt contact tracing. This outcome keeps pressure on humanitarian agencies and marginally raises risk premia tied to Central African logistics and mining exposure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.5%
- Healthcare +0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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