Possible scenario
Ministerial Reset
18% Chance
Macron initially rejects the resignation but later concludes that the interior minister has become a liability. A replacement gives the government a chance to reframe the response, though the effect depends on whether the appointment is seen as technocratic or partisan.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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