Possible scenario
Crackdown Expands
25% Chance
Macron continues backing the interior minister but authorizes wider curfews, transport restrictions, and local emergency orders. This reduces immediate disorder in some areas while prolonging political controversy over policing and civil liberties.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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