Possible scenario
Containment Holds
42% Chance
The most likely path is that the Élysée absorbs the criticism and keeps the interior minister in place while police deployments, gathering bans, and rapid prosecutions reduce nightly violence. Macron avoids another personnel crisis after the 2024 government collapse, but political tensions remain elevated.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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