Possible scenario
Sanctions Confrontation
20% Chance
Iran's rebuilding effort and blocked inspections push the U.S., EU, and IAEA Board of Governors toward tougher sanctions and formal censure. Tehran answers by reducing cooperation further, increasing legal and financial pressure without immediate large-scale combat.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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