Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
24% Chance
The United States, Oman, Qatar, the European Union, and the IAEA try to prevent the nuclear standoff from becoming a wider war. Tehran may accept limited inspection access or a temporary enrichment cap if sanctions relief or security assurances are offered.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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