Possible scenario
Prolonged Kansas Slowdown
25% Chance
ICE-related labor uncertainty persists across Kansas beef hubs, keeping slaughter materially below normal for several weeks. Packers face lower throughput while cattle back up in feedlots and wholesale beef prices move higher.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -1.5%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
Tickers
- TSN-4.7%
- JBS-3.5%
- TXRH-2.0%
- MCD-0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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