Possible scenario
Narrow Charges Filed
18% Chance
Despite setbacks, DOJ could eventually bring a limited case to show results from the long-running effort. The most realistic charge would be narrow—false statements, obstruction, or mishandling of records—rather than a sweeping conspiracy case.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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