Data Fight Continues

The most likely path is a prolonged dispute over what the FBI is measuring: arrests, referrals, or cases accepted by U.S. attorneys. Kash Patel and Justice Department officials argue that referrals are down because field offices are prioritizing immigration, violent crime, and faster arrest operations rather than slower referral-heavy investigations.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.