Possible scenario
Aggressive Enforcement Escalates
20% Chance
Farage chooses confrontation and orders visible raids, expanded detention, and charter flights before the legal position is settled. This raises the risk of protests, police clashes, diplomatic retaliation, and a larger risk premium on UK political assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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