Possible scenario
Republicans Hold Congress
25% Chance
Republicans retain control of both chambers, though likely with narrow margins. Trump's claim is recast by allies as a successful turnout warning that kept the party unified enough to avoid a midterm defeat.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Energy +0.3%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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