Possible scenario
Democrats Take House
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is a split Congress, with Democrats gaining enough Trump-district seats to take the House while Republicans narrowly retain the Senate. Trump's warning becomes a post-election argument over turnout failure rather than proof of a permanent Republican collapse.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Technology -0.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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