Possible scenario
Democratic Midterm Sweep
20% Chance
A sharper anti-Trump backlash gives Democrats both chambers, turning the midterms into the referendum Trump described. This would likely intensify investigations, legislative standoffs, and Republican succession fights heading into 2028.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.9%
- Finance -0.8%
- Healthcare
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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