Possible scenario
Military Security Escalates
18% Chance
Washington and London treat the alleged Fairford plot as part of a broader Iranian campaign against Western military assets. The escalation is security-focused, but it raises the perceived risk of a US-Iran incident.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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