Possible scenario
IRGC Network Exposed
25% Chance
British investigators release more evidence linking the alleged plot to IRGC-linked handlers or intermediaries. The response stays below a military threshold but adds diplomatic and legal pressure on Tehran.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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